(Let’s ignore that this whole thing has absolutely nothing to do with either the actual Law of Large Numbers or the Law of Truly Large Numbers.)Īpple’s market cap as I type this today: $2.94 trillion. To be clear, Stewart never predicted that Apple couldn’t continue growing at that rate - he just posited it as somewhat improbable. That is bigger than the 2011 gross domestic product of

If Apple’s share price grew even 20 percent a year for the nextĭecade, which is far below its current blistering pace, its $500īillion market capitalization would be more than $3 trillion byĢ022. High earnings growth and a rapid rise in share price will slow as In the case of the largest companies, it suggests that That a variable will revert to a mean over a large sample of Here is the rub: Apple is so big, it’s running up against the lawĪlso known as the golden theorem, with a proof attributed to theġ7th-century Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli, the law states Stewart, writing for The New York Times just under a decade ago:

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